Macroeconomic forecasting

Macroeconomic forecasting with a public track record.

Terminus builds and publishes macroeconomic, inflation, growth, central bank and currency forecasts — then applies them to the decisions of businesses, institutions, family offices and private investors.

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Every forecast on this site is time-stamped before the outcome is known and scored against the release.

The record, in numbers

94.7%

Central bank calls correct

95.9%

Macro forecast accuracy

61.1%

Currency direction accuracy

Time-stamped forecasts published

Economies covered

Indicators forecast

See the track record

What we forecast

One model, five indicator families — inflation, growth, unemployment, policy rates and currencies. Each published, dated and scored.

Inflation

Headline and core inflation paths for the major economies, built from the demand, wage and energy channels that actually move the print.

Growth

GDP growth trajectories and turning points, with the leading indicators that carry the forecast.

Unemployment

Labour market slack and unemployment paths — the channel that decides how much of a slowdown reaches wages and policy.

Central banks

Policy rate decisions — hike, hold or cut — called ahead of the meeting and scored against the outcome.

Currencies

Directional forecasts for the major currency pairs, driven by the rate differentials and macro gaps the model tracks.

Method

Advisory

Forecasting applied to your decisions

The model exists to answer real questions: where to hedge, when to borrow, what to budget for, how exposed you are to the next policy turn. Advisory is where that happens.

Businesses

Budget assumptions, FX and rate exposure, pricing and cost planning under a documented macro baseline.

Institutions

Independent macro scenarios and central bank expectations to test in-house views against.

Family offices

Macro framing for allocation and risk decisions across cycles, with scenario probabilities in writing.

Private investors

Direct access to the forecaster behind the record, applied to your own decisions and time horizon.

Consultation

A scoped call: your exposures, your horizon, the decisions on your desk.

Forecast brief

A written macro baseline and alternative scenarios for the variables that matter to you.

Ongoing advisory

Updates as the data lands, with direct access when the outlook changes.

Advisory services

Research

Read the research first

Our macroeconomic reports are free inside the terminal. Create an account and read everything we publish — no plan, no card, no paywall.