The model
Macroeconomic forecasting, documented
Terminus runs a structural macroeconomic forecasting model covering inflation, growth, central bank policy and currencies. Every output is dated on publication and scored against the released data.
Method
Structural, not narrative
Forecasts come from modelled relationships between demand, labour, credit, energy and policy — not from a story written after the fact.
Published before the outcome
Each forecast carries the month it was made. Nothing is revised backwards once the data arrives.
Scored openly
Hits and misses are both on the record. Accuracy is measured as absolute error against the official release.
Continuously re-estimated
The model is re-run as each release lands, so the baseline reflects the data available today.
Coverage
Inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, policy rates and major currency pairs across the economies below.
What you receive
- A written macro baseline with explicit numeric forecasts and horizons
- Alternative scenarios with probabilities, not vague risk language
- Central bank expectations ahead of each meeting
- Revisions and post-mortems when the data disagrees with the model
The record is public
Every published forecast, hit or miss, is listed on the track record page.
94.7%
Central bank calls correct
95.9%
Macro forecast accuracy