Track record

Every forecast, scored against the outcome

Central bank decisions and macroeconomic forecasts, published before the release and measured against it. Hits and misses both stay on the page.

How we measure accuracy

Every forecast is written down with the month it was made, before the data is released. Central bank calls are scored as a hit only when the forecast decision matches the decision taken. Macro forecasts are scored on absolute error against the first official release. Currency forecasts are scored on direction only — up or down over the forecast month. Nothing is revised after the fact, and misses stay on this page.

Central bank decisions

Policy calls made ahead of the meeting.

Central bank calls correct

94.7%

Total calls

19

Correct

18

Incorrect

1

CountryMonthForecastActualResult
USAMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
CanadaMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
UKMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
EUMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
JapanMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
USAApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
CanadaApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
UKApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
EUApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
JapanApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
NorwayMay 2026UNCHANGEDINCREASEDMiss
USAJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
CanadaJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
UKJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
EUJun 2026INCREASEINCREASEHit
SwedenJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
NorwayJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
SwitzerlandJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
JapanJun 2026INCREASEINCREASEHit

Macroeconomic forecasts

Forecast versus actual for inflation, growth and activity, with absolute error.

Macro forecast accuracy

95.9%

Forecasts

62

Average absolute error

0.41

VariableCountryMonthForecastActualError
GDP growthUSAMar 20261.812.000.19
InflationUSAMar 20262.603.300.70
UnemploymentUSAMar 20264.514.300.21
GDP growthCanadaMar 20261.81-0.101.91
InflationCanadaMar 20261.802.400.60
UnemploymentCanadaMar 20266.926.700.22
GDP growthUKMar 20261.401.100.30
InflationUKMar 20262.713.300.59
UnemploymentUKMar 20265.315.000.31
GDP growthEUMar 20261.210.800.41
InflationEUMar 20261.912.600.69
UnemploymentEUMar 20266.246.200.04
GDP growthGermanyMar 20260.510.300.21
InflationGermanyMar 20262.002.700.70
UnemploymentGermanyMar 20266.356.400.05
GDP growthFranceMar 20261.221.100.12
InflationFranceMar 20260.921.700.78
UnemploymentFranceMar 20267.878.100.23
GDP growthItalyMar 20260.410.200.21
InflationItalyMar 20261.241.700.46
UnemploymentItalyMar 20266.145.200.94
GDP growthSpainMar 20262.602.700.10
InflationSpainMar 20262.623.400.78
UnemploymentSpainMar 202610.4610.830.37
GDP growthJapanMar 20260.610.600.01
InflationJapanMar 20262.681.501.18
UnemploymentJapanMar 20262.752.700.05
GDP growthUSAApr 20261.101.600.50
InflationUSAApr 20263.353.800.45
UnemploymentUSAApr 20264.454.300.15
InflationCanadaApr 20262.352.800.45
UnemploymentCanadaApr 20266.906.900.00
InflationUKApr 20263.252.800.45
UnemploymentUKApr 20265.345.000.34
InflationEUApr 20262.493.000.51
UnemploymentEUApr 20266.256.300.05
InflationGermanyApr 20262.552.900.35
UnemploymentGermanyApr 20266.386.400.02
InflationFranceApr 20261.622.200.58
InflationItalyApr 20262.112.800.69
UnemploymentItalyApr 20265.755.100.65
InflationSpainApr 20263.393.200.19
InflationJapanApr 20262.731.401.33
UnemploymentJapanApr 20262.762.500.26
InflationUSAMay 20263.634.200.56
UnemploymentUSAMay 20264.504.300.20
UnemploymentCanadaMay 20266.806.600.20
InflationUKMay 20263.882.801.07
InflationEUMay 20263.193.200.01
InflationGermanyMay 20262.902.600.30
UnemploymentGermanyMay 20266.206.300.10
InflationFranceMay 20262.132.400.27
InflationItalyMay 20262.193.201.00
InflationSpainMay 20263.383.200.18
InflationSwedenMay 20260.800.800.01
UnemploymentSwedenMay 20268.659.400.75
InflationNetherlandsMay 20263.153.500.34
UnemploymentNetherlandsMay 20264.103.900.20
InflationNorwayMay 20263.563.100.46
InflationSwitzerlandMay 20260.670.600.07
UnemploymentSwitzerlandMay 20263.003.000.00
InflationJapanMay 20261.881.500.38

Currency direction forecasts

Directional forecasts for major pairs, scored on direction only.

Currency direction accuracy

61.1%

Total forecasts

18

Correct

11

PairMonthForecastActualResult
EUR/USDFeb 2026UPDOWNMiss
USD/JPYFeb 2026UPUPHit
GBP/USDFeb 2026DOWNDOWNHit
USD/CHFFeb 2026UPUPHit
AUD/USDFeb 2026UPDOWNMiss
NZD/USDFeb 2026DOWNDOWNHit
USD/CADFeb 2026UPUPHit
EUR/USDMar 2026UPUPHit
USD/JPYMar 2026DOWNDOWNHit
GBP/USDMar 2026UPUPHit
USD/CHFMar 2026DOWNDOWNHit
AUD/USDMar 2026DOWNUPMiss
NZD/USDMar 2026DOWNUPMiss
USD/CADMar 2026UPDOWNMiss
USD/JPYApr 2026DOWNUPMiss
USD/CHFApr 2026DOWNUPMiss
NZD/USDApr 2026UPUPHit
USD/CADApr 2026UPUPHit

Accuracy is calculated from the published forecasts listed on this page. Past forecast accuracy is not a guarantee of future accuracy.

Bring the forecast to your decisions

If the record holds up, the next step is to apply it to the exposures on your desk.

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