Results

Every call. Time-stamped. Public.

We publish hits and misses with equal prominence. Below are the forecasts we issued versus what actually printed — central bank decisions, currency trades, and macro indicators.

A. Central Bank Decisions

Policy-rate calls

Forecasts on whether each central bank holds, raises, or cuts rates — published ahead of the meeting.

Total forecasts

19

Correct predictions

18

Accuracy

94.7%

Country
Month
CountryForecast monthTERMINUS forecastActual decisionResult
USAMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
CanadaMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
UKMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
EUMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
JapanMar 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
USAApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
CanadaApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
UKApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
EUApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
JapanApr 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
NorwayMay 2026UNCHANGEDINCREASEDMiss
USAJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
CanadaJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
UKJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
EUJun 2026INCREASEINCREASEHit
SwedenJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
NorwayJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
SwitzerlandJun 2026UNCHANGEDUNCHANGEDHit
JapanJun 2026INCREASEINCREASEHit

B. Currency Calls

FX trade ledger

Every directional FX trade — long and short — with entry, exit, P/L, and pip count.

Total trades

18

Winning trades

11

Losing trades

7

Win rate

61.1%

Total P/L

6.31%

Avg pips

50.3

Best trade

USD/CHF +322.9p

Worst trade

AUD/USD -301.2p

Currency pairPositionEntryExitP/LPipsResult
EUR/USDLONG1.18172 · Feb 20261.15532 · Mar 2026-2.23%-264.0Miss
USD/JPYLONG156.06600 · Feb 2026158.72400 · Mar 20261.70%265.8Hit
GBP/USDSHORT1.34868 · Feb 20261.32288 · Mar 20261.91%258.0Hit
USD/CHFLONG0.76716 · Feb 20260.79945 · Mar 20264.21%322.9Hit
AUD/USDLONG0.71160 · Feb 20260.69005 · Mar 2026-3.03%-215.5Miss
NZD/USDSHORT0.59970 · Feb 20260.57468 · Mar 20264.17%250.2Hit
USD/CADLONG1.36414 · Feb 20261.39144 · Mar 20262.00%273.0Hit
EUR/USDLONG1.15532 · Mar 20261.17308 · Apr 20261.54%177.6Hit
USD/JPYSHORT158.72400 · Mar 2026156.62400 · Apr 20261.32%210.0Hit
GBP/USDLONG1.32288 · Mar 20261.36034 · Apr 20262.83%374.6Hit
USD/CHFSHORT0.79945 · Mar 20260.78140 · Apr 20262.26%180.5Hit
AUD/USDSHORT0.69005 · Mar 20260.72017 · Apr 2026-4.36%-301.2Miss
NZD/USDSHORT0.57468 · Mar 20260.59090 · Apr 2026-2.82%-162.2Miss
USD/CADLONG1.39144 · Mar 20261.35822 · Apr 2026-2.39%-332.2Miss
USD/JPYSHORT156.62400 · Apr 2026159.29900 · May 2026-1.71%-267.5Miss
USD/CHFSHORT0.78140 · Apr 20260.78538 · May 2026-0.51%-39.8Miss
NZD/USDLONG0.59090 · Apr 20260.59215 · May 20260.21%12.5Hit
USD/CADLONG1.35822 · Apr 20261.37452 · May 20261.20%163.0Hit

C. Macro Forecast vs Actual

GDP · Inflation · Unemployment

Quarterly macro forecasts versus printed values, by country.

Total forecasts

62

Average absolute error

0.410

Accuracy score

95.9%

Forecast vs actual

Error distribution

IndicatorCountryMonthForecastActualError
GDP growthUSAMar 20261.8092.0000.191
InflationUSAMar 20262.6033.3000.697
UnemploymentUSAMar 20264.5054.3000.205
GDP growthCanadaMar 20261.809-0.1001.909
InflationCanadaMar 20261.8042.4000.596
UnemploymentCanadaMar 20266.9206.7000.220
GDP growthUKMar 20261.3981.1000.298
InflationUKMar 20262.7133.3000.587
UnemploymentUKMar 20265.3125.0000.312
GDP growthEUMar 20261.2100.8000.410
InflationEUMar 20261.9152.6000.685
UnemploymentEUMar 20266.2366.2000.036
GDP growthGermanyMar 20260.5130.3000.213
InflationGermanyMar 20262.0012.7000.699
UnemploymentGermanyMar 20266.3506.4000.050
GDP growthFranceMar 20261.2181.1000.117
InflationFranceMar 20260.9161.7000.784
UnemploymentFranceMar 20267.8658.1000.235
GDP growthItalyMar 20260.4070.2000.207
InflationItalyMar 20261.2351.7000.465
UnemploymentItalyMar 20266.1445.2000.944
GDP growthSpainMar 20262.6042.7000.096
InflationSpainMar 20262.6163.4000.784
UnemploymentSpainMar 202610.45910.8300.371
GDP growthJapanMar 20260.6060.6000.006
InflationJapanMar 20262.6751.5001.175
UnemploymentJapanMar 20262.7482.7000.048
GDP growthUSAApr 20261.1041.6000.496
InflationUSAApr 20263.3553.8000.445
UnemploymentUSAApr 20264.4464.3000.146
InflationCanadaApr 20262.3472.8000.453
UnemploymentCanadaApr 20266.8996.9000.001
InflationUKApr 20263.2482.8000.448
UnemploymentUKApr 20265.3435.0000.343
InflationEUApr 20262.4883.0000.512
UnemploymentEUApr 20266.2466.3000.054
InflationGermanyApr 20262.5462.9000.354
UnemploymentGermanyApr 20266.3796.4000.021
InflationFranceApr 20261.6212.2000.579
InflationItalyApr 20262.1152.8000.685
UnemploymentItalyApr 20265.7475.1000.647
InflationSpainApr 20263.3953.2000.195
InflationJapanApr 20262.7351.4001.335
UnemploymentJapanApr 20262.7562.5000.257
InflationUSAMay 20263.6354.2000.565
UnemploymentUSAMay 20264.5004.3000.200
UnemploymentCanadaMay 20266.8006.6000.200
InflationUKMay 20263.8752.8001.075
InflationEUMay 20263.1853.2000.015
InflationGermanyMay 20262.9002.6000.300
UnemploymentGermanyMay 20266.2006.3000.100
InflationFranceMay 20262.1352.4000.265
InflationItalyMay 20262.1953.2001.005
InflationSpainMay 20263.3853.2000.185
InflationSwedenMay 20260.7950.8000.005
UnemploymentSwedenMay 20268.6509.4000.750
InflationNetherlandsMay 20263.1553.5000.345
UnemploymentNetherlandsMay 20264.1003.9000.200
InflationNorwayMay 20263.5553.1000.455
InflationSwitzerlandMay 20260.6650.6000.065
UnemploymentSwitzerlandMay 20263.0003.0000.000
InflationJapanMay 20261.8751.5000.375